Gagan Thapa Elected NC President: Can He Break the 'Rule of Money'?

Gagan Thapa has been elected President of the Nepali Congress, assuming leadership at a critical juncture where internal analysis suggests that illicit funding functions as the "lifeblood" of the nation’s political governance. Thapa’s rise to the party helm raises immediate questions regarding whether the new leadership will dismantle or replicate the "shadow treasury" mechanics allegedly institutionalized by his predecessors.

According to a research dossier classified as the "Lifeblood Hypothesis," the current political system operates on a model of Realpolitik where financial liquidity supersedes ideology. Data indicates that the "mandate" to govern is increasingly purchased through illicit funding sourced from the informal economy. Election observation studies by the Asia Foundation and the Election Observation Committee confirm a direct correlation between high expenditure and electoral success, creating a substantial barrier to entry for non-wealthy actors.

Late Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is cited in the dossier as the historical progenitor of this resource-mobilization model. While revered as a "Shikhar Purush" (Towering Personality), verified records point to a reliance on pragmatism over procedural integrity, exemplified by the Lauda Air scam of 2001 and the Dhamija scandal. This period reportedly institutionalized the "Setting," a colloquialism for off-the-books deal-making where political protection is exchanged for financial support.

The dossier alleges that subsequent leaders have replicated this model. Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba is linked to the Wide Body scam involving an estimated loss of NPR 4.35 billion through the use of shell companies. Additionally, Arzu Rana Deuba faces allegations regarding the "Fake Bhutanese Refugee" scam, where leaked audio recordings reportedly reference a payment of NPR 25 million, highlighting the "open secret" nature of high-level complicity.

Similarly, CPN-Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal "Prachanda" is associated with the "Maoist Cantonment Scandal," where billions of rupees allocated for combatants were allegedly siphoned to facilitate the party's transition from a guerrilla force to a parliamentary player. CPN-UML Chairman K.P. Sharma Oli’s tenure is linked to the "Omni Group Scandal" regarding the procurement of overpriced medical supplies during the COVID-19 crisis, a dynamic the dossier describes as "Plutocracy," where specific business houses act as "veins" delivering financial nutrition to leadership.

The flow of these funds reportedly follows a specific circulation path involving "auctioned" parliamentary tickets, bureaucratic transfers, and kickbacks from contractors. This capital is then funneled through the informal economy to hire "muscle" for local enforcement and to maintain the party’s "heartbeat" by paying cadres. Without this monthly "transfusion," internal reports suggest the party structure would collapse.

Thapa’s election presents a structural dilemma for the Nepali Congress. With successful parliamentary campaigns reportedly costing tens of millions of rupees, refusing illicit funding risks rendering the leadership a "Paper Tiger"—fierce in image but lacking the financial capacity to mobilize cadres against well-funded rivals. It remains to be seen if the new leadership can disrupt these traditional patronage networks without fracturing the party.